The first two proton flares in the onset of solar cycle 23

M. A. Mosalam SHALTOUT

Abstract

The onset of the solar cycle 23 started by two solar proton flares at 4 and 6 November 1997 from the Active region SESC 8100. The GOES spacecraft detected protons of flux 72 and 492 pfu (Particle Flux Unit) of energies > 10 MeV at 4 and 6 November 1997. The two proton flares were associated with flares of X-ray importance X2 and X9 and H-alpha importance 2B on Nov 4 and 6 respectively. An evaluation of the solar active region 8100 was performed and conclusion about the proton events was drawn through the onset of solar cycle 23. The proton flares produced high sudden ionospheric disturbance (SID) in the Earth's atmosphere and geomagnetic storms. The method of cumulative summation curve was applied to predict the highly energetic solar flare by two or three days prior to the flare occurrence. The result indicate that the method is reliable for high solar flare forecasting.

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